priors.science/reviews/vitamin-d

Vitamin D

The current evidence on 16 claims, ordered from most established to most contested. Each score is the panel’s evidence certainty — how firmly the literature supports the claim as stated.

16claims tracked

244primary papers reviewed

10 Aug 2026latest evidence review

Weeklyre-scored against new papers

0 Established · 0 Likely · 3 Uncertain · 11 Doubtful · 2 Refuted | four-reviewer panel · PICO Framework

ClaimStandingEvidence certaintyCorpus

Pre-eclampsiaPregnancyUncertain66%20

Small for gestational agePregnancyUncertain56%18

Cancer mortalityCancerUncertain55%24

High-dose vitamin D and fallsFallsDoubtful49%20

Vitamin D plus calcium and hip fractureBoneDoubtful47%20

Acute respiratory infectionRespiratoryDoubtful47%21

All-cause mortalityMortalityDoubtful44%24

Type 2 diabetes preventionCardiometabolicDoubtful40%22

Mortality in deficient adultsMortalityDoubtful40%20

Asthma exacerbationsRespiratoryDoubtful36%21

COVID-19 outcomesRespiratoryDoubtful34%20

Falls in older adultsFallsDoubtful32%21

Bone mineral density in adultsBoneDoubtful30%25

Cancer incidenceCancerDoubtful30%22

Major cardiovascular eventsCardiometabolicRefuted28%22

Fracture risk in general adultsBoneRefuted24%20

Track Vitamin D.

These claims are re-scored against new papers every week. Track this topic for the full review, including each claim’s challenge and the papers behind it.

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Standing — what the evidence certainty means

Established≥ 85%Strong, consistent evidence. Unlikely to change.

Likely70–84%Well supported, with some gaps or indirect evidence.

Uncertain50–69%Mixed or limited evidence. Genuinely open.

Doubtful30–49%Little support; the weight of evidence leans against it.

Refuted< 30%The evidence contradicts it — confidently false as stated.