priors.science/reviews/predictive-biomarkers-immunotherapy

Predictive Biomarkers Immunotherapy

The current evidence on 19 claims, ordered from most established to most contested. Each score is the panel’s evidence certainty — how firmly the literature supports the claim as stated.

19claims tracked
161primary papers reviewed
9 Aug 2026latest evidence review
Weeklyre-scored against new papers
4 Established · 9 Likely · 6 Uncertain · 0 Doubtful  |  four-reviewer panel · PICO Framework
ClaimStandingEvidence certaintyCorpus
PD-L1 assays are non-interchangeablePdl1Established91%10
PD-L1 tumour proportion score predictor in non-small-cell lung cancerPdl1Established90%10
Microsatellite instability-high versus microsatellite-stable immune checkpoint inhibitor selectivityMsi HEstablished89%10
Biomarker prediction across cancer typesMulti BiomarkerEstablished85%19
Mismatch repair-deficient endometrial immune checkpoint inhibitor responseMsi HLikely83%11
Circulating tumour DNA clearance on-treatment with immune checkpoint inhibitorsCtdnaLikely82%12
PD-L1 combined positive score predictor in gastro-oesophageal adenocarcinomaPdl1Likely74%8
Tumour-infiltrating lymphocyte density predicts immune checkpoint inhibitor responseTilLikely74%11
Cold tumours and immune checkpoint inhibitor resistanceTilLikely74%10
Microsatellite instability-high is the best immune checkpoint inhibitor biomarkerMsi HLikely72%12
Multi-biomarker prediction superiorityMulti BiomarkerLikely71%10
Interferon-gamma gene signature predicts immune checkpoint inhibitor responseIfngLikely70%10
Tumour mutational burden cutoff is cancer-type specificTMBLikely70%10
Neoantigen burden and immune checkpoint inhibitor responseNeoantigenUncertain68%10
Pre-treatment circulating tumour DNA for immune checkpoint inhibitor selectionCtdnaUncertain58%10
Blood versus tissue tumour mutational burden discordanceTMBUncertain57%10
Tumour mutational burden pan-tumour immune checkpoint inhibitor FDA approvalTMBLong-standingUncertain54%10
Human leukocyte antigen heterozygosity and immune checkpoint inhibitor durabilityNeoantigenUncertain52%10
JAK/STAT interferon pathway and immune checkpoint inhibitor resistanceIfngUncertain51%10
Track Predictive Biomarkers Immunotherapy.
These claims are re-scored against new papers every week. Track this topic for the full review, including each claim’s challenge and the papers behind it.
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Standing — what the evidence certainty means
Established≥ 85%Strong, consistent evidence. Unlikely to change.
Likely70–84%Well supported, with some gaps or indirect evidence.
Uncertain50–69%Mixed or limited evidence. Genuinely open.
Doubtful30–49%Little support; the weight of evidence leans against it.
Refuted< 30%The evidence contradicts it — confidently false as stated.
Where the evidence sits in time
Long-standingMost of this evidence is older than the rest of this field.