priors.science/reviews/novel-antibiotics

Novel Antibiotics

The current evidence on 16 claims, ordered from most established to most contested. Each score is the panel’s evidence certainty — how firmly the literature supports the claim as stated.

16claims tracked
182primary papers reviewed
9 Aug 2026latest evidence review
Weeklyre-scored against new papers
3 Established · 5 Likely · 8 Uncertain · 0 Doubtful  |  four-reviewer panel · PICO Framework
ClaimStandingEvidence certaintyCorpus
AMR causes over one million deaths annuallyAmr BurdenEstablished94%18
Dalbavancin achieves high cure rates in acute bacterial skin infectionsLipoglycopeptidesEstablished91%12
Stewardship reduces consumptionStewardshipEstablished88%15
Ceftolozane-tazobactam is effective for DTR Pseudomonas aeruginosa infectionsCeft TazoLikely76%13
CAZ-AVI achieves clinical cure in most serious CRE infectionsCaz AviLong-standingLikely74%9
CRE bacteraemia carries 30 to 45 percent 30-day mortalityAmr BurdenLong-standingLikely72%11
Lipoglycopeptides reduce length of stayLipoglycopeptidesLikely72%11
CAZ-AVI reduces mortality in KPC CRE infections versus older agentsCaz AviLong-standingLikely71%10
Stewardship programmes reduce multidrug-resistant organism rates in hospitalsStewardshipUncertain69%12
Cefiderocol achieves high cure rates in non-Acinetobacter resistant infectionsCefiderocolUncertain68%8
CAZ-AVI plus aztreonam is effective against MBL-producing organismsCaz AviUncertain67%10
Dalbavancin osteomyelitis efficacyLipoglycopeptidesUncertain62%12
Phage therapy improves clinical outcomes in drug-resistant bacterial infectionsPhageUncertain53%11
Ceftolozane-tazobactam resistance emergence exceeds CAZ-AVI during treatmentCeft TazoUncertain52%8
Cefiderocol has excess mortality risk in Acinetobacter baumannii infectionsCefiderocolUncertain51%10
Phage antibiotic combinationPhageUncertain50%12
Track Novel Antibiotics.
These claims are re-scored against new papers every week. Track this topic for the full review, including each claim’s challenge and the papers behind it.
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Standing — what the evidence certainty means
Established≥ 85%Strong, consistent evidence. Unlikely to change.
Likely70–84%Well supported, with some gaps or indirect evidence.
Uncertain50–69%Mixed or limited evidence. Genuinely open.
Doubtful30–49%Little support; the weight of evidence leans against it.
Refuted< 30%The evidence contradicts it — confidently false as stated.
Where the evidence sits in time
Long-standingMost of this evidence is older than the rest of this field.