priors.science/reviews/non-alcoholic-fatty-liver-disease

Non Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

The current evidence on 55 claims, ordered from most established to most contested. Each score is the panel’s evidence certainty — how firmly the literature supports the claim as stated.

55claims tracked

715primary papers reviewed

9 Aug 2026latest evidence review

Weeklyre-scored against new papers

13 Established · 31 Likely · 11 Uncertain · 0 Doubtful | four-reviewer panel · PICO Framework

ClaimStandingEvidence certaintyCorpus

Resmetirom first approved non-alcoholic steatohepatitis therapyResmetiromEstablished91%19

Semaglutide 2.4mg fibrosis improvementSemaglutideEstablished90%20

Tirzepatide 15mg non-alcoholic steatohepatitis resolution 62%IncretinsEstablished89%20

Resmetirom 80mg non-alcoholic steatohepatitis resolution 25.9%ResmetiromEstablished88%19

FXR agonists cause pruritus and low-density lipoprotein riseFXREstablished87%20

Resmetirom 80mg improves fibrosis stageResmetiromEstablished87%19

Fibrosis stage predicts non-alcoholic fatty liver disease mortalityStagingEstablished87%22

FIB-4 detects advanced non-alcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosisDiagnosisEstablished86%27

Tirzepatide fibrosis improvement 51%IncretinsEstablished86%20

Semaglutide 2.4mg non-alcoholic steatohepatitis resolution 62.9%SemaglutideEstablished86%20

Empagliflozin reduces liver fat in non-alcoholic fatty liver diseaseSglt2Established86%19

Obeticholic acid 25mg fibrosis improvement 23%FXREstablished85%20

PNPLA3 I148M is the top non-alcoholic fatty liver disease risk geneGeneticsEstablished85%20

Food and Drug Administration rejected obeticholic acid for non-alcoholic steatohepatitisFXRLikely82%20

FIB-4 predicts cardiovascular events in non-alcoholic fatty liver diseaseStagingLikely82%25

Pioglitazone causes 2-5 kg weight gainPioglitazoneLikely81%20

Resmetirom reduces low-density lipoprotein cholesterolResmetiromLikely80%20

Semaglutide 0.4mg non-alcoholic steatohepatitis resolution 59%SemaglutideLikely80%21

Bariatric surgery non-alcoholic steatohepatitis resolution 84%SurgeryLikely80%20

FIB-4 below 1.3 rules out advanced fibrosisDiagnosisLikely79%22

Cilofexor reduces liver fat in non-alcoholic steatohepatitisFXRLikely79%20

7-10% weight loss resolves non-alcoholic steatohepatitisLifestyleLikely79%20

10% weight loss predicts fibrosis regressionLifestyleLikely79%21

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease affects 25% of global adultsStagingLikely79%19

Bariatric surgery reduces adverse liver outcomesSurgeryLikely77%20

Pioglitazone non-alcoholic steatohepatitis resolution 51% in type 2 diabetesPioglitazoneLikely76%20

Dapagliflozin reduces hepatic steatosisSglt2Likely76%23

Steatosis not an independent mortality predictorStagingLong-standingLikely76%19

PNPLA3 GG genotype doubles non-alcoholic fatty liver disease cirrhosis riskGeneticsLikely74%20

Pioglitazone benefits non-diabetic non-alcoholic steatohepatitisPioglitazoneLong-standingLikely74%20

Semaglutide reduces liver fat in non-alcoholic fatty liver diseaseSemaglutideLikely74%19

Magnetic resonance elastography outperforms transient elastography for fibrosis stagingDiagnosisLong-standingLikely73%20

PNPLA3 GG genotype and type 2 diabetes highest cirrhosis riskGeneticsLikely73%20

Bariatric surgery reduces major adverse cardiovascular event riskSurgeryLikely73%20

HSD17B13 allele attenuates PNPLA3 riskGeneticsLikely72%20

Pioglitazone improves non-alcoholic steatohepatitis fibrosisPioglitazoneLikely72%20

SGLT2 inhibitors reduce alanine aminotransferase and FIB-4Sglt2Likely72%20

Ipragliflozin improves non-alcoholic steatohepatitis fibrosisSglt2Likely72%19

Advanced fibrosis triples non-alcoholic fatty liver disease mortalityStagingLikely72%17

Bariatric surgery improves non-alcoholic steatohepatitis fibrosisSurgeryLikely72%20

Fibrosis persists in 47% after surgerySurgeryLikely72%20

FAST score identifies high-risk non-alcoholic steatohepatitisDiagnosisLikely70%20

Polygenic score predicts hepatocellular carcinoma risk in non-alcoholic fatty liver diseaseGeneticsLikely70%21

GLP-1 receptor agonists reduce liver events in type 2 diabetesSemaglutideEarly evidenceUncertain68%22

NIS4 panel detects at-risk non-alcoholic steatohepatitisDiagnosisUncertain67%20

Weight loss mediates tirzepatide non-alcoholic steatohepatitis resolutionIncretinsUncertain66%19

Rosiglitazone lacks pioglitazone benefitPioglitazoneUncertain65%20

FIB-4 above 2.67 predicts 4-fold cardiovascular riskDiagnosisUncertain62%21

Lifestyle non-alcoholic steatohepatitis resolution rate 16%LifestyleUncertain62%20

Fasting and exercise reduce hepatic fatLifestyleUncertain60%20

Tofogliflozin improves non-alcoholic fatty liver disease histologySglt2Uncertain60%19

Tirzepatide lowers adverse liver eventsIncretinsUncertain58%20

Bariatric surgery superior to GLP-1 receptor agonists in non-alcoholic steatohepatitisSurgeryUncertain57%20

Track Non Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

These claims are re-scored against new papers every week. Track this topic for the full review, including each claim’s challenge and the papers behind it.

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Standing — what the evidence certainty means

Established≥ 85%Strong, consistent evidence. Unlikely to change.

Likely70–84%Well supported, with some gaps or indirect evidence.

Uncertain50–69%Mixed or limited evidence. Genuinely open.

Doubtful30–49%Little support; the weight of evidence leans against it.

Refuted< 30%The evidence contradicts it — confidently false as stated.

Where the evidence sits in time

Early evidenceMost of this evidence is from the last two years.

Long-standingMost of this evidence is older than the rest of this field.