Standing — what the evidence certainty means
Established≥ 85%Strong, consistent evidence. Unlikely to change.
Likely70–84%Well supported, with some gaps or indirect evidence.
Uncertain50–69%Mixed or limited evidence. Genuinely open.
Doubtful30–49%Little support; the weight of evidence leans against it.
Refuted< 30%The evidence contradicts it — confidently false as stated.
Where the evidence sits in time
Early evidenceMost of this evidence is from the last two years.
Long-standingMost of this evidence is older than the rest of this field.