priors.science/reviews/glp-1-receptor-agonists

GLP-1 Receptor Agonists

The current evidence on 39 claims, ordered from most established to most contested. Each score is the panel’s evidence certainty — how firmly the literature supports the claim as stated.

39claims tracked
669primary papers reviewed
9 Aug 2026latest evidence review
Weeklyre-scored against new papers
6 Established · 10 Likely · 15 Uncertain · 8 Doubtful  |  four-reviewer panel · PICO Framework
ClaimStandingEvidence certaintyCorpus
Tirzepatide 15 mg achieves 20% body weight lossMetabolicEstablished90%21
Semaglutide 2.4 mg achieves 15% body weight lossMetabolicEstablished88%21
Improve non-alcoholic fatty liver diseaseMetabolicEstablished87%21
Reduce major adverse cardiovascular events in type 2 diabetes with established cardiovascular diseaseCardiovascularEstablished86%25
Tirzepatide outperforms single GLP-1 receptor agonistsMetabolicEstablished86%20
Reduce obstructive sleep apnoeaNovelEstablished85%20
No increase in suicidalitySafetyEarly evidenceLikely84%27
Weight regain after discontinuationMetabolicLikely83%21
Cardiovascular benefit in non-diabetic obesityCardiovascularLikely81%23
Renal protection and slower chronic kidney disease progressionMetabolicLikely81%20
Sustained heart rate increase of 2-4 beats per minuteSafetyLong-standingLikely81%20
No overall gastrointestinal cancer increaseCancerLikely79%21
Reduce all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetesCardiovascularLikely78%22
Increase gallbladder disease riskSafetyLikely77%21
Reduce alcohol consumptionAddictionLong-standingLikely74%23
No thyroid cancer increaseCancerLikely70%22
Reduce neuroinflammation (microglial suppression)NeurodegenerationLong-standingUncertain67%19
Improve male reproductive functionNovelEarly evidenceUncertain65%20
Improve polycystic ovary syndrome fertilityNovelUncertain64%20
Clinically significant lean mass lossSafetyEarly evidenceUncertain64%21
Reduce Alzheimer's disease riskNeurodegenerationEarly evidenceUncertain62%20
Improve psoriasis severityNovelUncertain61%20
Increase non-arteritic anterior ischaemic optic neuropathy riskSafetyEarly evidenceUncertain61%20
Reduce heart failure hospitalisationCardiovascularUncertain60%23
Tirzepatide has better ocular safetySafetyEarly evidenceUncertain57%18
Reduced colorectal cancer riskCancerUncertain55%15
Worsen diabetic retinopathySafetyUncertain55%20
Reduce opioid and stimulant useAddictionUncertain52%21
Reduce atrial fibrillation recurrenceCardiovascularUncertain52%21
Modulate reward circuitryAddictionLong-standingUncertain51%20
Reduce peripheral arterial disease and limb eventsCardiovascularUncertain50%21
Reduce nicotine cravingsAddictionDoubtful47%23
Slow Parkinson's disease progressionNeurodegenerationLong-standingDoubtful45%20
Preserve brain glucose metabolismNeurodegenerationLong-standingDoubtful44%19
Reduce fibromyalgia symptomsNovelDoubtful42%21
Bone density and fracture riskSafetyDoubtful40%20
Reduce pancreatic cancer in pancreatitisCancerLong-standingDoubtful35%20
Improve cognition in established Alzheimer's diseaseNeurodegenerationDoubtful35%20
Improve breast cancer disease-free survivalCancerDoubtful32%20
Track GLP-1 Receptor Agonists.
These claims are re-scored against new papers every week. Track this topic for the full review, including each claim’s challenge and the papers behind it.
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Standing — what the evidence certainty means
Established≥ 85%Strong, consistent evidence. Unlikely to change.
Likely70–84%Well supported, with some gaps or indirect evidence.
Uncertain50–69%Mixed or limited evidence. Genuinely open.
Doubtful30–49%Little support; the weight of evidence leans against it.
Refuted< 30%The evidence contradicts it — confidently false as stated.
Where the evidence sits in time
Early evidenceMost of this evidence is from the last two years.
Long-standingMost of this evidence is older than the rest of this field.