priors.science/reviews/caffeine-and-performance

Caffeine and Performance

The current evidence on 12 claims, ordered from most established to most contested. Each score is the panel’s evidence certainty — how firmly the literature supports the claim as stated.

12claims tracked
117primary papers reviewed
9 Aug 2026latest evidence review
Weeklyre-scored against new papers
0 Established · 3 Likely · 5 Uncertain · 4 Doubtful  |  four-reviewer panel · PICO Framework
ClaimStandingEvidence certaintyCorpus
Caffeine improves enduranceEnduranceLikely81%14
Caffeine improves alertnessCognitionLikely72%12
Caffeine improves sprint performanceStrength PowerLikely72%14
Caffeine offsets sleep-loss deficitsCognitionUncertain66%12
Low doses improve enduranceDosingUncertain66%12
Caffeine lowers perceived exertionEnduranceLong-standingUncertain66%12
Caffeine improves strength and powerStrength PowerUncertain54%13
Ergogenic effect is dose-dependentDosingUncertain51%13
Caffeine mouth rinse aids performanceDosingDoubtful45%12
CYP1A2 genotype moderates the effectIndividualDoubtful43%12
Habitual use blunts the effectIndividualDoubtful42%12
Pre-exercise caffeine harms sleepAdverseDoubtful31%12
Track Caffeine and Performance.
These claims are re-scored against new papers every week. Track this topic for the full review, including each claim’s challenge and the papers behind it.
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Standing — what the evidence certainty means
Established≥ 85%Strong, consistent evidence. Unlikely to change.
Likely70–84%Well supported, with some gaps or indirect evidence.
Uncertain50–69%Mixed or limited evidence. Genuinely open.
Doubtful30–49%Little support; the weight of evidence leans against it.
Refuted< 30%The evidence contradicts it — confidently false as stated.
Where the evidence sits in time
Long-standingMost of this evidence is older than the rest of this field.